多模式集成的概率天气预报和气候预测研究进展   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

智协飞  彭婷  李刚  王佳  王晶 《大气科学学报》2014,37(2):248-256

基于大气的混沌特性,单一的确定性预报逐步向多值的不确定性概率预报转化已成为一种趋势。本文系统地评述了概率天气预报产生的背景,介绍了概率预报的相关概念及国内外的研究状况,着重讨论了多模式集成的概率预报的两种集成方法,即贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)和多元高斯集合核拟合法(Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing,GEKD),并给出了两个例子的概率预报试验结果。利用BMA方法制作的概率预报的方差较小,减小了预报的不确定性,因此预报结果更接近大气的真实值。作为另一种多模式集成方法,多元高斯集合核拟合法回报的地面气温距平均值及趋势的概率预测结果与实测结果基本一致。利用此方法建立了地面气温年代际变化的概率多模式集合预测模型,并从中提取年代际气候变化特征,对东亚季风区年代际预测具有重要应用价值。  相似文献   

节理面构成块体的概率公式及其工程应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

赵奎  王晓军  赵康  金解放  任育林 《岩土力学》2006,27(3):369-372

利用块体理论和概率分析理论,建立了同时考虑节理面间距和延展性随机特性的情况下构成块体体积的理论公式,据此分析了节理间距、延展性随机特性与构成块体体积的关系,进而得到了具有实用价值的计算公式,该公式结合可动块体分析方法,可以有效地解决赤平投影难以计算小型结构面构成块体体积的问题。工程实例表明,该公式具有实用性和应用前景。  相似文献   

临江堤防破坏时二线堤防对灾情影响分析     

朱奚冰郑烨  韩曾萃 《海洋工程》2005,23(3):84-89,93

随着治江与海堤建设历史的发展,钱塘江两岸形成许多二线海堤,研究二线堤在临江海堤失效后的作用及其是否保留的必要性对于沿江地区的开发建设是很有意义的。以钱塘江下沙三号大堤为实例,通过比较选择合理的水力计算方法,分析讨论在二线海堤存在与否的不同条件下保护区的受灾水情及二线堤的失效概率等问题。  相似文献   

地理数据尺度转换方法研究进展   总被引：38，自引：3，他引：35  

孟斌  王劲峰 《地理学报》2005,60(2):277-288

尺度问题在地理学、生态学和水文科学等众多领域都具有非常重要的地位。近年来,随着对地观测技术和地理信息科学的飞速发展,解决地理数据的尺度转换问题成为目前地理信息科学及相关研究中的热点和难点问题之一。在地理信息科学相关领域中,地图学和遥感科学研究人员从尺度概念的理解到尺度转换的理论和方法都做了大量的研究,对解决地理数据空间特征的尺度转换做出了重要的贡献。在地理数据属性特征的尺度转换研究领域,地理信息科学研究者提出的面域插值方法是解决此问题的主要方法之一。同时,在社会经济科学领域,“小区域统计学”也发展了一套相关的理论和方法,试图解决统计单元的变更问题。文章在全面回顾和比较不同研究领域解决“尺度转换”问题方法的基础上,重点介绍面域插值方法和小区域统计学的基本原理及其典型应用。  相似文献   

Analysis of soil moisture dynamics beneath olive trees          下载免费PDF全文

Antonio Jesús Espejo‐Pérez  Luca Brocca  Tommaso Moramarco  Juan V. Giráldez  John Triantafilis  Karl Vanderlinden 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4339-4352

Olive cultivation is a widespread land use in Mediterranean climates. The proper implementation of soil and water conservation practices in groves requires detailed knowledge of the governing hydrological processes. In this work topsoil moisture dynamics under wet and dry conditions and across a small catchment was investigated in the inter row (IR) and directly under the olive tree canopies (UC). We do this using a sensor network (11 stations) and a simple bucket model which was calibrated (June, 2011–2012) and validated (June, 2012–2013). During most of the year the normalized soil moisture contents (s) were greater in the IR than under UC, with an average normalized soil moisture difference of 0.12. The difference between UC and IR normalized soil moisture followed a seasonal pattern, reaching a maximum near 0.30 during spring. An analysis of the normalized soil moisture probability density functions (pdfs) was bimodal, showing characteristic dominant wet and dry soil moisture states, with the highest probability densities for the dry state. Overall the spatial variability of soil moisture was lower UC than in the IR. This was a result of the soil moisture buffering capacity of the canopy with respect to rainfall and evaporation, in addition to observed differences in soil properties. Hourly soil moisture data were successfully modelled (R² > 0.85), both UC and in the IR, yet with the inclusion of a simple formulation for canopy interception for the former. The results provide insight into how olive trees change hydrological processes in their neighbourhood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of potential failure risks in a mine slope using indicator kriging     

M. S. Lana  I. E. Cabral  A. H. Gripp  M. F. A. Gripp 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(16):1725-1742

Indicator kriging has been applied to the study of failure mechanisms in a mine slope in Minas Gerais, Brazil, to estimate potential failure risks in limited areas along this slope. Timbopeba Mine, Vale Company, is an open pit iron mine situated in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero, a very important mining district in Minas Gerais. A slope excavated in quartzite with a maximum height of 200 m at the time of this study, has presented many failure problems involving the sliding of blocks formed by discontinuities. These blocks are of limited size in comparison to the dimensions of the overall slope. They appear along the entire slope, wherever discontinuity orientations have led to the kinematic feasibility of these blocks. Geostatistics permits the estimation of local failure probability distributions associated to these local failures, which would not be possible with traditional statistical models. The geostatistical method employed in this study, indicator kriging, is quite suitable because it is unnecessary to assume a particular global distribution of the phenomena being modeled. The model was used for locating areas with a great tendency for sliding failure, as it considers the local spatial variability of discontinuity orientations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

利用时空立方体挖掘小微地震时空演变模式     

黄泽纯  刘子璞  范心仪  洪安东 《测绘通报》2020,(9):106-109

挖掘分析小微地震的时空演变模式，可为地震灾害的分析与预报提供辅助决策参考。本文以四川地区的地震监测数据为基础，利用时空立方体融合地震点的空间、时间与属性数据，基于时空热点统计分析方法挖掘小微地震的时空冷热点分布模式。试验结果表明：在试验数据的时域内，四川地区小微地震的热点模式主要表现为连续热点、逐渐减少热点和振荡热点。冷点模式主要是连续冷点，且冷点覆盖范围比热点覆盖范围广。基于时空立方体的时空热点分析方法能够发挥时空统计学的优势，可有效挖掘分析小微地震的时空演变趋势。  相似文献   

Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash     

Afshin Ghahramani  Yoshiharu Ishikawa  Takashi Gomi  Shusuke Miyata 《水文研究》2011,25(15):2471-2480

This study developed a one‐dimensional model of downslope rain splash transport based on field experiments and previous studies. The developed model considers soil detachment processes, ground cover, probability densities, and the effect of overland run‐off in preventing detachment. Field monitoring was conducted to observe precipitation run‐off, ground cover, and sediment production on steep hillslopes. Field‐observed data were used to develop the splash detachment rate equation, probability densities for splash transport, and the maximum splash transport distance. Observed and estimated splash transport showed overall agreement, with some differences for small storm events or events with relatively low intensity, probably caused by variation of overland run‐off depth and connectivity as well as differences in soil surface cohesion at various degrees of wetness. Our model can provide insights on the interactions among rainfall intensity, soil surface condition, soil wetness, and splash transport on forested hillslopes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A multimetric-index approach using fisheries data to assess fish assemblage structure in relation to salinity gradient in a tropical West African estuary     

J Kantoussan  JM Ecoutin  R Laë  OT Thiaw  L Tito de Morais 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(2):175-185

This study examines the effects of increasing salinity on fish assemblage structure in the Casamance Estuary, Senegal, using a series of indices. The study data were derived from commercial fishery surveys conducted between April and July 2005. Analysis of within-trophic-group diversity in the Casamance Estuary shows a significant drop in the diversity of apex predators in the upper, more saline reaches of the estuary. By contrast, primary consumers adapted well to salinity changes and exhibited higher taxonomic diversity in the upper reaches of the estuary than in the lower reaches. The findings also indicate decreases in average sizes of the landed species and the trophic levels among fish catches in the direction of the upper reaches. However, the catch per unit effort (CPUE) was globally higher in the upstream area of the estuary as compared with the downstream area. This increasing CPUE trend from the lower towards the upper reaches is attributed to (i) the high primary productivity in the upper Casamance Estuary; (ii) the increasing abundance of euryhaline fish species in an upstream direction; and (iii) ‘telescoping’ of the food chain through the presence of mostly herbivorous fishes in the upper reaches. Such a situation likely facilitated high fish production in the upstream area of the estuary, though multimetric indices indicated unfavourable living conditions for many fish taxa in this area.  相似文献   

南海北部海面风速概率分布特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

廖菲  邓华  曾琳  Chan Pak-wai 《海洋学报》2018,40(5):37-47

利用南海北部的浮标、石油平台观测的海面风资料，分析了0~200 km范围内，不同离岸距离站点的风速的概率分布特征。观测结果指出，各站平均风速一般最大值出现在冬季，最小值出现在夏季，具有明显的季节变化特征，并且平均风速随着离岸距离的增大也逐渐增大。对于离岸距离较近的区域（100 km以内），海面风基本符合双参数的Weibull分布，但对于100 km以外的海面风速概率分布与Weibull分布存在明显差异，随着离岸距离的增大，平均风速和风速标准偏差也相应增大。风速平均值与风速标准偏差的比值较小时，Weibull分布的偏斜度基本为正值，当比值较大时偏斜度转为负值。随着离岸距离的增大，出现与Weibull分布不一致的情况越来越多，且与对应的Weibull分布相比，其偏斜度越小，风速概率分布越不能用Weibull分布进行较好拟合。  相似文献